Originally posted November 16, 2018
Here is an excerpt:
“Intuitions of master chess players when they look at the board [and make a move], they’re accurate,” he said. “Everybody who’s been married could guess their wife’s or their husband’s mood by one word on the telephone. That’s an intuition and it’s generally very good, and very accurate.”
According to Kahneman, who’s studied when one can trust intuition and when one cannot, there are three conditions that need to be met in order to trust one’s intuition.
The first is that there has to be some regularity in the world that someone can pick up and learn.
“So, chess players certainly have it. Married people certainly have it,” Kahnemen explained.
However, he added, people who pick stocks in the stock market do not have it.
“Because, the stock market is not sufficiently regular to support developing that kind of expert intuition,” he explained.
The second condition for accurate intuition is “a lot of practice,” according to Kahneman.
And the third condition is immediate feedback. Kahneman said that “you have to know almost immediately whether you got it right or got it wrong.”
The info is here.