Why Anecdotes Beat Data And Hijack Our Judgment

Chuck Dinerstein

American Council on Science and Health

Originally published 4 Sept 25

While chance plays a role in many, if not all, of our decisions and consequences, its role is both partial and variable. As a result, our understanding of “cause” is ambiguous, which, in turn, distorts our judgments and predictions. It helps to explain why all my achievements come from hard work, while yours were due to luck. To generalize, we all underestimate the role of chance in the outcomes of our actions, viewing our “task performance over time as diagnostic of ability.” 

The research, reported in PNAS Nexus, investigates situations entirely determined by chance, e.g., coin flips, where past performance should have no bearing on future expectations. The study examined how people's expectations and behaviors were affected by actual lucky successes and unlucky failures.

Using both real and virtual coins, participants were asked to predict the outcomes of a sequence of five coin tosses. The researchers observed how the experience of varying degrees of "lucky successes" and "unlucky failures" influenced subsequent expectations and behaviors, anticipating three possible responses.

The info is here.

Here are some thoughts:

In essence, this article provides psychologists with a clear, compelling, and generalizable model for understanding one of the most pervasive and problematic aspects of human cognition: our innate drive to impose order and causality on randomness. It explains why people believe in luck, superstitions, and false cause-and-effect relationships, and why data often fails to change minds. This understanding is foundational for developing better communication strategies, designing effective interventions against misinformation, improving decision-making in high-stakes fields, and ultimately, helping individuals make more rational choices in their personal and professional lives.

How people decide what they want to know

Sharot, T., Sunstein, C.R. 

Nat Hum Behav 4, 14–19 (2020). 

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-019-0793-1

Abstract

Immense amounts of information are now accessible to people, including information that bears on their past, present and future. An important research challenge is to determine how people decide to seek or avoid information. Here we propose a framework of information-seeking that aims to integrate the diverse motives that drive information-seeking and its avoidance. Our framework rests on the idea that information can alter people’s action, affect and cognition in both positive and negative ways. The suggestion is that people assess these influences and integrate them into a calculation of the value of information that leads to information-seeking or avoidance. The theory offers a framework for characterizing and quantifying individual differences in information-seeking, which we hypothesize may also be diagnostic of mental health. We consider biases that can lead to both insufficient and excessive information-seeking. We also discuss how the framework can help government agencies to assess the welfare effects of mandatory information disclosure.

Conclusion

It is increasingly possible for people to obtain information that bears on their future prospects, in terms of health, finance and even romance. It is also increasingly possible for them to obtain information about the past, the present and the future, whether or not that information bears on their personal lives. In principle, people’s decisions about whether to seek or avoid information should depend on some integration of instrumental value, hedonic value and cognitive value. But various biases can lead to both insufficient and excessive information-seeking. Individual differences in information-seeking may reflect different levels of susceptibility to those biases, as well as varying emphasis on instrumental, hedonic and cognitive utility.  Such differences may also be diagnostic of mental health.

Whether positive or negative, the value of information bears directly on significant decisions of government agencies, which are often charged with calculating the welfare effects of mandatory disclosure and which have long struggled with that task. Our hope is that the integrative framework of information-seeking motives offered here will facilitate these goals and promote future research in this important domain.

A pdf is here.