Coleman, M. B., Caviola, L., et al.
(2023, October 21).
Abstract
Human extinction would mean the deaths of eight billion people and the end of humanity’s achievements, culture, and future potential. On several ethical views, extinction would be a terrible outcome. How do people think about human extinction? And how much do they prioritize preventing extinction over other societal issues? Across six empirical studies (N = 2,541; U.S. and China) we find that people consider extinction prevention a global priority and deserving of greatly increased societal resources. However, despite estimating the likelihood of human extinction to be 5% this century (U.S. median), people believe the odds would need to be around 30% for it to be the very highest priority. Consequently, people consider extinction prevention to be only one among several important societal issues. People’s judgments about the relative importance of extinction prevention appear relatively fixed and are hard to change by reason-based interventions.
Here is my take:
The study found that lay people rated extinction prevention as more important than addressing climate change, poverty, and inequality. However, they rated extinction prevention as less important than promoting peace and security, and ensuring the well-being of future generations.
The study's authors suggest that these findings may be due to the fact that lay people perceive extinction prevention as a more existential threat than other societal issues. They also suggest that lay people may be more likely to prioritize extinction prevention if they believe that it is achievable.
Key findings:
- Lay people prioritize extinction prevention, but not above all other societal issues.
- Lay people rated extinction prevention as more important than addressing climate change, poverty, and inequality.
- Lay people rated extinction prevention as less important than promoting peace and security, and ensuring the well-being of future generations.
- The study's authors suggest that these findings may be due to the fact that lay people perceive extinction prevention as a more existential threat than other societal issues.
