Sjåstad, H., & Van Bavel, J. (2023).
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 0(0).
https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672231191360
Abstract
In four experiments covering three different life domains, participants made future predictions in what they considered the most realistic scenario, an optimistic best-case scenario, or a pessimistic worst-case scenario (N = 2,900 Americans). Consistent with a best-case heuristic, participants made “realistic” predictions that were much closer to their best-case scenario than to their worst-case scenario. We found the same best-case asymmetry in health-related predictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, for romantic relationships, and a future presidential election. In a fully between-subject design (Experiment 4), realistic and best-case predictions were practically identical, and they were naturally made faster than the worst-case predictions. At least in the current study domains, the findings suggest that people generate “realistic” predictions by leaning toward their best-case scenario and largely ignoring their worst-case scenario. Although political conservatism was correlated with lower covid-related risk perception and lower support of early public-health interventions, the best-case prediction heuristic was ideologically symmetric.
Here is my summary:
This research examined how people make predictions about the future in different life domains, such as health, relationships, and politics. The researchers found that people tend to make predictions that are closer to their best-case scenario than to their worst-case scenario, even when asked to make a "realistic" prediction. This is known as the best-case heuristic.
The researchers conducted four experiments to test the best-case heuristic. In the first experiment, participants were asked to make predictions about their risk of getting COVID-19, their satisfaction with their romantic relationship in one year, and the outcome of the next presidential election. Participants were asked to make three predictions for each event: a best-case scenario, a worst-case scenario, and a realistic scenario. The results showed that participants' "realistic" predictions were much closer to their best-case predictions than to their worst-case predictions.
The researchers found the same best-case asymmetry in the other three experiments, which covered a variety of life domains, including health, relationships, and politics. The findings suggest that people use a best-case heuristic when making predictions about the future, even in serious and important matters.
The best-case heuristic has several implications for individuals and society. On the one hand, it can help people to maintain a positive outlook on life and to cope with difficult challenges. On the other hand, it can also lead to unrealistic expectations and to a failure to plan for potential problems.
Overall, the research on the best-case heuristic suggests that people's predictions about the future are often biased towards optimism. This is something to be aware of when making important decisions and when planning for the future.
