Sperber, J. F., et al. (2024).
Child Development.
Abstract
This study extends the analytic approach conducted by Watts et al. (2018) to examine the long-term predictive validity of delay of gratification. Participants (n = 702; 83% White, 46% male) completed the Marshmallow Test at 54 months (1995–1996) and survey measures at age 26 (2017–2018). Using a preregistered analysis, Marshmallow Test performance was not strongly predictive of adult achievement, health, or behavior. Although modest bivariate associations were detected with educational attainment (r = .17) and body mass index (r = −.17), almost all regression-adjusted coefficients were nonsignificant. No clear pattern of moderation was detected between delay of gratification and either socioeconomic status or sex. Results indicate that Marshmallow Test performance does not reliably predict adult outcomes. The predictive and construct validity of the ability to delay of gratification are discussed.
Here are some thoughts:
This study is part of the replication crisis in psychology. This study examined the long-term predictive validity of the Marshmallow Test, a widely used measure of delay of gratification. The test, administered to 702 participants at age 4, was found to have limited predictive power for adult outcomes, such as achievement, health, and behavior, at age 26. While modest associations were detected with educational attainment and body mass index, these correlations were largely explained by demographics and home life factors. The study's findings question the construct validity of the Marshmallow Test, suggesting it may not accurately measure delay of gratification. Instead, it may screen for broader developmental advantages in early childhood. These results have implications for intervention strategies, highlighting the need to focus on broader capacities for lasting impact.
