Mathematical model offers clear-cut answers to how morals will change over time

The Institute for Future Studies

Phys.org

Originally posted 13 APR 2022

Researchers at the Institute for Futures Studies in Stockholm, Sweden, have created a mathematical model to predict changes in moral opinion. It predicts that values about corporal punishment of children, abortion-rights and how parental leave should be shared between parents, will all move in liberal directions in the U.S. Results from a first test of the model using data from large opinion surveys continuously conducted in the U.S. are promising.

Corporal punishment of children, such as spanking or paddling, is still widely accepted in the U.S. But public opinion is changing rapidly, and in the United States and elsewhere around the world, this norm will soon become a marginal position. The right to abortion is currently being threatened through a series of court cases—but though change is slow, the view of abortion as a right will eventually come to dominate. A majority of Americans today reject the claim that parental leave should be equally shared between parents, but within 15 years, public opinion will flip, and a majority will support an equal division.

"Almost all moral issues are moving in the liberal direction. Our model is based on large opinion surveys continuously conducted in the U.S., but our method for analyzing the dynamics of moral arguments to predict changing public opinion on moral issues can be applied anywhere," says social norm researcher Pontus Strimling, a research leader at the Institute for Futures Studies, who together with mathematician Kimmo Eriksson and statistician Irina Vartanova conducted the study that will be published in the journal Royal Society Open Science on Wednesday, April 13th.

The research is here.

From the Discussion

Overall, this study shows that moral opinion change can to some extent be predicted, even under unusually volatile circumstances. Note that the prediction method used in this paper is quite rudimentary. Specifically, the method is only based on a very simple survey measure of each opinion's argument advantage and the use of historical opinion data to calibrate a parameter for converting such measures to predicted change rates. Given that the direction is predicted completely based on surveys about argument advantage it is remarkable that the direction was correctly predicted in two-thirds of the cases (three-quarters if the issues related to singular events were excluded). Even so, the method can probably be improved.

Predicting how the U.S. public opinion on moral issues will change from 2018 to 2020 and beyond, Royal Society Open Science (2022).

The Morality of Taking From the Rich and Giving to the Poor

Noah Smith
Bloomberg
Originally posted 11 Feb 20

Here is an excerpt:

Instead, economists can help by trying to translate people’s preferences for fairness, equality and other moral goals into actionable policy. This requires getting a handle on what amount and types of redistribution people actually want. Some researchers now are attempting to do this.

For example, in a new paper, economists Alain Cohn, Lasse Jessen, Marko Klasnja and Paul Smeets, reasoning that richer people have an outsized impact on the political process, use an online survey to measure how wealthy individuals think about redistribution. Their findings were not particularly surprising; people in the top 5% of the income and wealth distributions supported lower taxes and tended to vote Republican.

The authors also performed an online experiment in which some people were allowed to choose to redistribute winnings among other experimental subjects who completed an online task. No matter whether the winnings were awarded based on merit or luck, rich subjects chose less redistribution.

But not all rich subjects. Cohn and his co-authors found that people who grew up wealthy favored redistribution about as much as average Americans. But those with self-made fortunes favored more inequality. Apparently, many people who make it big out of poverty or the middle class believe that everyone should do the same.

This suggests that the U.S. has a dilemma. A dynamic economy creates lots of new companies, which bring great fortunes to the founders. But if Cohn and his co-authors are right, those founders are likely to support less redistribution as a result. So if the self-made entrepreneurs wield political power, as the authors believe, there could be a political trade-off between economic dynamism and redistribution.

The info is here.