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Showing posts with label Gradation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gradation. Show all posts

Monday, March 21, 2022

Confidence and gradation in causal judgment

O'Neill, K., Henne, P, et al.
Cognition
Volume 223, June 2022, 105036

Abstract

When comparing the roles of the lightning strike and the dry climate in causing the forest fire, one might think that the lightning strike is more of a cause than the dry climate, or one might think that the lightning strike completely caused the fire while the dry conditions did not cause it at all. Psychologists and philosophers have long debated whether such causal judgments are graded; that is, whether people treat some causes as stronger than others. To address this debate, we first reanalyzed data from four recent studies. We found that causal judgments were actually multimodal: although most causal judgments made on a continuous scale were categorical, there was also some gradation. We then tested two competing explanations for this gradation: the confidence explanation, which states that people make graded causal judgments because they have varying degrees of belief in causal relations, and the strength explanation, which states that people make graded causal judgments because they believe that causation itself is graded. Experiment 1 tested the confidence explanation and showed that gradation in causal judgments was indeed moderated by confidence: people tended to make graded causal judgments when they were unconfident, but they tended to make more categorical causal judgments when they were confident. Experiment 2 tested the causal strength explanation and showed that although confidence still explained variation in causal judgments, it did not explain away the effects of normality, causal structure, or the number of candidate causes. Overall, we found that causal judgments were multimodal and that people make graded judgments both when they think a cause is weak and when they are uncertain about its causal role.

From the General Discussion

The current paper sought to address two major questions regarding singular causal judgments: are causal judgments graded, and if so, what explains this gradation?

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In other words, people make graded causal judgments both when they think a cause is weak and also when they are uncertain about their causal judgment. Although work is needed to determine precisely why and when causal judgments are influenced by confidence, we have demonstrated that these effects are separable from more well-studied effects on causal judgment. This is good news for theories of causal judgment that rely on the causal strength explanation: these theories do not need to account for the effects of confidence on causal judgment to be useful in explaining other effects. That is, there is no need for major revisions in how we think about causal judgments. Nevertheless, we think our results have important implications for these theories, which we outline below.