Lee, D., & Coricelli, G. (2020).
Frontiers in Psychology, 11.
Abstract
Most contemporary models of value-based decisions are built on value estimates that are typically self-reported by the decision maker. Such models have been successful in accounting for choice accuracy and response time, and more recently choice confidence. The fundamental driver of such models is choice difficulty, which is almost always defined as the absolute value difference between the subjective value ratings of the options in a choice set. Yet a decision maker is not necessarily able to provide a value estimate with the same degree of certainty for each option that he encounters. We propose that choice difficulty is determined not only by absolute value distance of choice options, but also by their value certainty. In this study, we first demonstrate the reliability of the concept of an option-specific value certainty using three different experimental measures. We then demonstrate the influence that value certainty has on choice, including accuracy (consistency), choice confidence, response time, and choice-induced preference change (i.e., the degree to which value estimates change from pre- to post-choice evaluation). We conclude with a suggestion of how popular contemporary models of choice (e.g., race model, drift-diffusion model) could be improved by including option-specific value certainty as one of their inputs.
Here are some thoughts:
The article examines how individuals' certainty about the subjective value of options influences their decision-making processes. Traditional decision models often assume that people can assign precise value estimates to choices, but this study argues that certainty about those estimates varies and significantly impacts choice behavior.
For psychologists, this research offers key insights into decision-making processes, metacognition, and cognitive effort. The study demonstrates that higher value certainty leads to more consistent choices, greater confidence, and shorter decision times. Conversely, when individuals are uncertain about the value of an option, they deliberate longer and are more likely to change their preferences post-decision. These findings suggest that value certainty is an important factor in decision difficulty and should be integrated into psychological models of choice.
The research also highlights the connection between value certainty and cognitive effort. When people are less certain about an option's value, they invest more mental effort to refine their judgment, a process reflected in longer response times. This has implications for therapeutic settings, particularly in areas like cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) and schema therapy, where individuals may struggle with decision-making due to uncertainty about personal values or preferences. Helping clients develop greater clarity about their values could improve decision-making confidence and reduce cognitive strain.
Moreover, the study's findings challenge existing models like the Drift-Diffusion Model (DDM), which assumes uniform uncertainty across options. The authors argue that decision models should incorporate value certainty as an independent variable, as it better predicts choice behavior and cognitive engagement. For psychologists working with clients who experience decision paralysis or chronic indecisiveness, these insights reinforce the importance of addressing subjective confidence in value assessments.