Tammy C. Hoffmann & Chris Del Mar
JAMA Intern Med.
Published online January 9, 2017.
Do clinicians have accurate expectations of the benefits and harms of treatments, tests, and screening tests?
In this systematic review of 48 studies (13 011 clinicians), most participants correctly estimated 13% of the 69 harm expectation outcomes and 11% of the 28 benefit expectations. The majority of participants overestimated benefit for 32% of outcomes, underestimated benefit for 9%, underestimated harm for 34%, and overestimated harm for 5% of outcomes.
Clinicians rarely had accurate expectations of benefits or harms, with inaccuracies in both directions, but more often underestimated harms and overestimated benefits.
The research is here.