"Living a fully ethical life involves doing the most good we can." - Peter Singer
"Common sense is not so common." - Voltaire
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” ― Søren Kierkegaard

Friday, July 1, 2016

Predicting Suicide is not Reliable, according to recent study

Matthew Large , M. Kaneson, N. Myles, H. Myles, P. Gunaratne, C. Ryan
PLOS One
Published: June 10, 2016
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0156322

Discussion

The pooled estimate from a large and representative body of research conducted over 40 years suggests a statistically strong association between high-risk strata and completed suicide. However the meta-analysis of the sensitivity of suicide risk categorization found that about half of all suicides are likely to occur in lower-risk groups and the meta-analysis of PPV suggests that 95% of high-risk patients will not suicide. Importantly, the pooled odds ratio (and the estimates of the sensitivity and PPV) and any assessment of the overall strength of risk assessment should be interpreted very cautiously in the context of several limitations documented below.

With respect to our first hypothesis, the statistical estimates of between study heterogeneity and the distribution of the outlying, quartile and median effect sizes values suggests that the statistical strength of suicide risk assessment cannot be considered to be consistent between studies, potentially limiting the generalizability of the pooled estimate.

With respect to our second hypothesis we found no evidence that the statistical strength of suicide risk assessment has improved over time.

The research is here.

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